Growing Fears About Islamic State Coming Back
There is growing concern among international and regional leaders about what might happen next in Syria. Many Middle Eastern and Western leaders fear that if Assad loses power in Syria, it might open the door for islamic state to return and grow stronger again in both Syria and Iraq. This possible outcome has raised serious worries about future stability in the region.
Reports from over 20 different sources, including officials from Syria, Iraq, the U.S., Europe, and nearby diplomats, say that islamic state is already working on plans to rise again and take advantage of the current situation.
Sources reveal that the group is quietly rebuilding in Syria and Iraq. They’ve started bringing fighters back into action, picking new places to strike, passing around weapons, and putting more focus on recruiting and spreading their views.
Efforts to revive the group are still facing challenges. Until now, these attempts haven’t made much progress. Officials working in security in Syria and Iraq, who have been tracking IS for years, told Reuters they have prevented more than a dozen serious attacks this year. This shows that security forces are still managing to keep a close watch on the threat.
Islamic State Danger Remains and How Nearby Countries Are Handling It
In December, when Bashar Assad’s rule in Syria ended, an important event happened that shows this clearly.
During a critical moment as rebels advanced on Damascus, two IS commanders based near Raqqa, the former capital of their caliphate, sent envoys to Iraq. Five Iraqi counter-terrorism officials revealed this to Reuters, highlighting the group’s continued efforts despite setbacks.
According to the officials, the messengers had clear instructions to encourage the group’s fighters to begin attacks. However, their plans were halted when they were stopped and arrested at a checkpoint in northern Iraq on December 2. This capture was a significant setback for the group’s efforts.
Nearly two weeks after capturing the envoys, Iraqi security forces tracked a suspected IS suicide attacker to a busy eatery in Daquq, a northern town, by tracing his cellphone. The officials said the attacker was killed by security officers before he could trigger his bomb belt.
The attack that was stopped confirmed Iraq’s concerns about the group, explained Colonel Abdul Ameer al-Bayati of the Iraqi Army’s 8th Division stationed nearby. He noted that after staying quiet for several years, Islamic State members are now becoming active again, encouraged by the ongoing unrest in Syria.
The situation on the ground has led to some changes in islamic state activity. Since Assad’s removal, IS has reported fewer attacks. Data from SITE Intelligence Group, which follows militant activity online, shows that IS claimed 38 attacks in Syria during the first five months of 2025. If this trend continues, they could report just over 90 attacks by year’s end, roughly one-third of what they claimed last year. This decline highlights how the group’s influence may be shifting in the region.
The situation in Iraq continues to evolve as IS activity changes. Iraq, the place where islamic state began, saw the group claim only four attacks in the first five months of 2025. This is much lower compared to the 61 attacks they said they carried out last year. These numbers suggest a significant drop in the group’s actions in their original stronghold.
Concerns about IS activities have grown in the region. When asked about islamic state activity, Syria’s government under new leader Ahmed al-Sharaa gave no response. Defence Minister Murhaf Abu Qasra told Reuters in January that the country is strengthening its intelligence efforts and that security forces are prepared to tackle any threats. It remains to be seen how effective these measures will be in addressing the ongoing challenges.
The fight against islamic state has seen major progress in recent years. Officials from the U.S. defense department and Iraq’s prime minister’s office say that the remaining IS fighters in Syria and Iraq are much weaker now. After losing their last stronghold in 2019 to a coalition led by the U.S. and local allies, they no longer control any land. Despite this, security experts warn that the group still poses a threat.
According to Iraqi spokesman Sabah al-Numan, the group — referring to the Islamic State — has been kept under control mainly because of early moves taken to stop them before they could act.
After Assad was no longer in power, the coalition and its partners targeted Islamic State militant hiding places with airstrikes and raids. Sabah al-Numan said these missions caught or killed many fighters and also stopped them from joining up again or launching new attacks.
Modern tools are playing a growing role in Iraq’s security efforts against the Islamic State. According to him, Iraq’s ability to collect information has improved, thanks to the use of drones and advanced equipment that help make their work more exact and effective. These improvements have made it easier to stop Islamic State threats before they grow.
During its peak years, IS controlled a significant portion of Syria and Iraq. From 2014 to 2017, IS took control of large parts of Syria and Iraq, about one-third of both countries. While in power, they used a very strict form of islamic state law and became known for their terrible and brutal actions. Their harsh rule caused great suffering to many people in the region.
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